Markets sway on tariff tensions as President Trump targets SA exports

The FTSE/JSE All Share Index closed marginally lower by 0.03% on Wednesday, while the rand weakened to R17.79/$ by 21h00 as market unease intensified following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 30% tariff on South African exports. The tariff is expected to significantly impact the country's agricultural sector, particularly white farmers, a group President Trump has defended in the past. President Trump previously cited unfounded claims of persecution of white South Africans, reduced US aid to South Africa, criticised President Cyril Ramaphosa, and even extended a refugee invitation to Afrikaners.

Meanwhile, US equities rebounded modestly as investors recalibrated expectations around trade and monetary policy. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all advanced roughly 0.30% by 21h18. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent meeting revealed that policymakers view the White House’s trade measures as inflationary. This concern has discouraged the Federal Reserve from resuming its interest rate-cutting cycle.

In Asia, the Hang Seng Index slid by 1.10%, erasing prior gains due to disappointing economic data from China. While consumer prices rose slightly in June—marking the first increase in five months—deflation concerns persist. Additionally, producer prices dropped at their steepest pace in two years, as soft demand and tariff uncertainties pressured margins. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei climbed 0.33%, and the broader Topix rose 0.41%, continuing their upward momentum despite rising global trade tensions.

European markets also displayed cautious optimism. The STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 each edged up by 0.10%, marking their highest levels in nearly a month. Still, investor sentiment remains fragile, with the escalating tariff threats—including a 50% tariff on copper imports and renewed grievances over EU tech-sector policies—weighing heavily on outlooks.

In commodity markets, oil prices showed muted movement. WTI crude settled at $68 per barrel after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected 7.1-million barrel increase in crude inventories for the week ending 4 July 2025, defying projections of a drawdown. Nonetheless, falling gasoline and distillate stockpiles, coupled with escalating Red Sea geopolitical risks and expectations of lower US output, supported prices. Brent crude was relatively flat, ending the session at $70 per barrel.