Global markets mixed as investors weigh Fed signals, earnings, and trade tensions

US stocks ended lower on Monday as investors took a breather after last week’s powerful rally and shifted their attention to Nvidia’s much-anticipated earnings report due on Wednesday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.30%, the Dow Jones dropped 349 points, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.40%, with consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities weighing the most. Nvidia, which makes up 8% of the S&P 500, gained 1%, while Intel fell 1% after reports that the US government had taken a 10% stake in the company as part of the Trump administration’s sovereign wealth fund initiative. Markets also looked ahead to key economic data, particularly Friday’s PCE inflation report— the Fed’s preferred gauge—expected to show core inflation rising to 2.90%. Rate-cut bets remain strong, with traders pricing in an 86% probability of a September move after Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole.

European stocks slipped on Monday as investors balanced Powell’s signal that the Fed may soon cut rates with ongoing concerns about growth. The STOXX 600 edged down 0.20%, while Germany’s DAX lost 0.40% and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.30%, with UK markets closed for a holiday. According to Trading Economics, Orsted sank 18% after US authorities halted a major offshore wind project, jeopardising its fundraising plans, while JDE Peet’s jumped 17% on news that Keurig Dr Pepper would acquire the Dutch coffee maker for €15.7 billion. Overall sentiment remained cautious, shaped by uncertainty over growth and monetary policy, despite last week’s progress on the US-EU trade deal, particularly in pharmaceuticals.

Meanwhile, Chinese equities extended their rally, with the Shanghai Composite reaching fresh ten-year highs and the Shenzhen Component also advancing strongly. Gains were fuelled by easing US-China trade tensions, expectations of additional domestic policy support, and an overall improvement in investor sentiment. Looking ahead, attention will turn to China’s upcoming PMI releases and industrial profit figures for further clues on the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Among individual movers, Trading Economics reported that Cambricon Technologies surged 11.40%, China Northern Rare Earth added 9.90%, and Hygon Information jumped 12.90%.

Back home, South African markets mirrored the cautious global tone on Monday, with the local bourse edging higher while the rand paused its recent rally. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index rose 0.25% to close at 102 978, buoyed by gains across the board and led by strong performances in sectors like property and large-cap equities. Notable movers according to Reuters included Southern Palladium, which soared over 25%, ArcelorMittal jumping more than 18%, and Sasol rallying nearly 12%, while losers included E-Media Holdings, Crookes Brothers, and Deneb Investments. The rand pulled back slightly—softer by about 0.20%—trading at approximately R17.46 against the US dollar, after a recent uptick that lifted it to a nine-month high. This modest retreat reflects investors securing profits ahead of key domestic data releases due later this week, including business cycle leading indicators, producer inflation, money supply, private sector credit, and the trade and budget balance reports.

Commodities added their own layer of influence to global markets on Monday. Gold prices eased slightly, retreating from a near two-week high as the US dollar firmed—spot gold fell about 0.10% to $3 367.86 per ounce, while December futures dipped 0.20% to $3 412.50, though the tone remained supported by continued expectations of imminent rate cuts from the Fed. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed amid mounting supply concerns—Brent crude gained 1.60%, settling at $68.80, and WTI rose 1.80% to $64.80—driven by renewed calls for sanctions on Russian oil and drone attacks targeting key Russian energy sites.